Against the backdrop of a successful counteroffensive by the Ukrainian military, the Kremlin may be compelled to announce another wave of mobilization and gather even more conscripts than last autumn.
Source: The New York Times.
According to the publication citing several Western officials in the US and EU countries, the liberation of all Ukrainian territories occupied by the Russian military in a single counteroffensive is highly unlikely.
However, the West acknowledges that Ukrainian military forces are reclaiming and holding key territories, dealing a debilitating blow to the criminal Russian army and causing the Kremlin to doubt the further prospects of waging war against Ukraine.
Representatives of US intelligence and special services acknowledge that the most likely scenario is limited success by Ukrainian military forces in the initial stages of the counteroffensive, resulting in the reclamation of parts of the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions while simultaneously pushing Russia out of agricultural and mining areas in southeastern Ukraine.
“The seizure of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant would be both a symbolic and strategic victory, returning one of the world’s largest nuclear power plants and an important source of electricity to Ukraine’s control,” emphasize the authors of the article.
Why are Western officials concerned about the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ overly successful counteroffensive?
According to officials in the United States and the European Union, it is crucial for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to sever or at least tightly squeeze the land corridor to Crimea, which improves logistics for Russian military criminals.
This will allow for threatening Russian military assets on the peninsula and disrupting the supply of troops to it. American and European officials say that a vital goal of the counteroffensive should be further weakening of Russian armed forces. This year, Russian troops have already suffered significant losses in the battles for Bakhmut.
However, some officials from allied countries, on the contrary, fear that the Ukrainian counteroffensive may turn out to be “too successful.” The significant loss of soldiers could compel Vladimir Putin to declare a larger-scale mobilization.
According to American intelligence agencies, a complete defeat in Ukraine or the loss of Crimea are two scenarios in which Mr. Putin potentially could give the order to use nuclear weapons, as stated in the article.