Currently, active preparations are underway for Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive. However, there are reasons why it has not yet begun.
Why Ukraine is not starting a counteroffensive?
Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President, Mykhailo Podoliak, named four main stages of preparation for the Ukrainian counteroffensive in spring. There are four components to the counteroffensive. “Certainly, we are not discussing it from an operational-tactical point of view: where, how and when it will be,” he said.
According to him, first of all, the accumulation of weapons is ongoing. Training and locating units that will be involved in this. Planning at the General Staff continues. “It is necessary to understand that Russia is already preparing in terms of defensive structures, reserve accumulation, and so on,” Podolyak stated.
He also added that the preparation for a counteroffensive is influenced by psychological and weather factors. Psychological factors are an informational component that affects the moral (in our case) or amoral (in the Russians’ case) state,” he emphasized.
What is known about the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the spring counteroffensive?
The Ukrainian military is already prepared for the planned spring counteroffensive. Armaments from Western partners have arrived, and assault units have already been formed. However, one of the key challenges will be recovering from losses and maintaining motivation due to serious fatigue from heavy fighting during the winter months.
The success of Ukraine in battles on the southeastern plains would demonstrate to the world the decline of Russia’s military power, reduce concerns that the war has reached a stalemate, and likely encourage Ukraine’s allies to provide further arms and funding to Kiev. However, conducting a counteroffensive would be a serious challenge for Ukrainian military forces and the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In particular, the military will have to undertake a difficult task of organizing the work of artillery units during the advancement of infantry units and military equipment, hindered by Russian trenches, tank traps, and minefields.
In the south, Russian units are constructing defensive positions after being pushed out of the Kherson region in November. Modern Western tanks, which have better survivability and firepower, will be crucial for eliminating these positions.