According to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, the spring draft, which will begin in Russia on April 1, may hinder the occupiers from replenishing their combat units that are fighting in Ukraine.
According to ISW analysts, Russian President Vladimir Putin considers the deployment of young conscripts to be a threat to the stability of his regime. Therefore, he is relying on mobilizing reservists and recruiting mercenaries.
Experts at the institute believe that Russian conscripts are unlikely to be sent to fight in Ukraine, but the Ministry of Defense will still have to allocate resources to them.
As a result, Russia’s training capacity is limited. The fact that conscripts who will not be sent to war in 2023 will take up these training resources deprives the Kremlin of the ability to train reservists and volunteers.
At the institute, it is acknowledged that the Russian government may attempt to recruit soldiers for the war in Ukraine, either by forcing or convincing some of the conscripted soldiers who are nearing the end of their service and have some level of training to sign contracts to fight.
However, ISW is not certain that such an attempt will yield the desired result for the Russian government.
To recall, Vladimir Putin has signed a decree on spring conscription, which traditionally begins on April 1st and lasts until July 15th.